Overall team quality
Strong Ohio advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
Central MichiganatOhio
Central Michigan14
Ohio31
CALLED
SharpTake projected Ohio at 77%. Ohio won.
ProjectedOhio by 12.0
ActualOhio by 17
Difference5.0 pts
Market spreadOhio -2.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Ohio -2.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Central Michigan 23%Ohio 77%
SharpTake projects Ohio to win.
OhioProjected winner
77%Win probability
Ohio by 12.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Ohio
Ohio's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Ohio. Ohio also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and running-game efficiency, while Central Michigan's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Ohio advantage
Running-game efficiency
Slight Ohio advantage
Last season's results
Central Michigan offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Central Michigan finishing drives
EDGECentral Michigan offenseOhio defense
Central Michigan scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle, while Ohio allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Ohio.
Points per scoring opportunity · 3.60 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 2.83 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Run game
NO EDGECentral Michigan offenseOhio defense
Central Michigan gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Ohio allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 39.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 42.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Pass game
NO EDGEOhio offenseCentral Michigan defense
Ohio gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Central Michigan allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Passing Success Rate · 45.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 38.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Central Michigan team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Ohio team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.