Overall team quality
Strong Western Michigan advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
Kent StateatWestern Michigan
Kent State7
Western Michigan38
CALLED
SharpTake projected Western Michigan at 87%. Western Michigan won.
ProjectedWestern Michigan by 18.0
ActualWestern Michigan by 31
Difference13.0 pts
Market spreadWestern Michigan -14
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Western Michigan -14
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Kent State 13%Western Michigan 87%
SharpTake projects Western Michigan to win.
Western MichiganProjected winner
87%Win probability
Western Michigan by 18.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Western Michigan
Western Michigan's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Western Michigan. Western Michigan also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's scoring performance, while Kent State's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Strong Western Michigan advantage
Last season's results
Kent State offset
Current season's scoring performance
Western Michigan advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Kent State staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGEKent State offenseWestern Michigan defense
Kent State gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Western Michigan allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Western Michigan.
Offensive Success Rate · 34.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 37.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Kent State run game
EDGEKent State offenseWestern Michigan defense
Kent State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Western Michigan allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Western Michigan.
Rushing Success Rate · 33.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 39.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Kent State pass game
EDGEKent State offenseWestern Michigan defense
Kent State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Western Michigan allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Western Michigan.
Passing Success Rate · 36.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 37.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Kent State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Western Michigan team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.