Overall team quality
Miami (OH) offset
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
Miami (OH)atMassachusetts
Miami (OH)20
Massachusetts19
MISSED
SharpTake projected Massachusetts at 51%. Miami (OH) won.
ProjectedMiami (OH) by 0.5
ActualMiami (OH) by 1
Difference0.5 pts
Market spreadMiami (OH) -6.25
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Massachusetts +6.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Miami (OH) 49%Massachusetts 51%
SharpTake projects Massachusetts to win.
MassachusettsProjected winner
51%Win probability
Miami (OH) by 0.5Projected margin
Mixed model signals: win probability leans Massachusetts, while the projected margin points to Miami (OH). The win-probability signal remains primary; both outputs are shown as produced.
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Massachusetts
Massachusetts's record from last season is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Massachusetts. Massachusetts also has the edge in current season's scoring performance, while Miami (OH)'s overall quality pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Strong Massachusetts advantage
Current season's results
Miami (OH) offset
Current season's scoring performance
Slight Massachusetts advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Massachusetts run game
CLEAR EDGEMassachusetts offenseMiami (OH) defense
Massachusetts gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Miami (OH) allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Miami (OH).
Rushing Success Rate · 33.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 38.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Massachusetts disruption vs Miami (OH)
CLEAR EDGEMiami (OH) disruption allowedMassachusetts disruption created
Miami (OH) avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams, while Massachusetts creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Miami (OH).
Havoc Rate allowed · 13.3%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 8.6%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Massachusetts staying on schedule
EDGEMassachusetts offenseMiami (OH) defense
Massachusetts gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Miami (OH) allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Miami (OH).
Offensive Success Rate · 33.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 39.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Miami (OH) team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Massachusetts team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.