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Sat, Oct. 17 · 12:00 PM ET · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Ball State32
Bowling Green31
MISSED
SharpTake projected Bowling Green at 72%. Ball State won.
ProjectedBowling Green by 8.5
ActualBall State by 1
Difference9.5 pts
Market spreadBowling Green -6.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Bowling Green -6.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Ball State 28%Bowling Green 72%
SharpTake projects Bowling Green to win.
Bowling GreenProjected winner
72%Win probability
Bowling Green by 8.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Bowling Green disruption vs Ball State
CLEAR EDGE
Ball State disruption allowedBowling Green disruption created
Ball State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while Bowling Green creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Bowling Green.
Havoc Rate allowed · 21.0%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 19.0%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Ball State staying on schedule
EDGE
Ball State offenseBowling Green defense
Ball State gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Bowling Green allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Bowling Green.
Offensive Success Rate · 32.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 40.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Ball State run game
EDGE
Ball State offenseBowling Green defense
Ball State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Bowling Green allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Bowling Green.
Rushing Success Rate · 34.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 39.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Ball State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Bowling Green position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET