SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 7

MassachusettsatBuffalo

Sat, Oct. 17 · 1:00 PM ET · UB Stadium

Massachusetts18
Buffalo25
CALLED

SharpTake projected Buffalo at 60%. Buffalo won.

ProjectedBuffalo by 3.5
ActualBuffalo by 7
Difference3.5 pts
Market spreadBuffalo -7
Vs spreadPUSHSharpTake Pick: Massachusetts +7

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects Buffalo to win.

BuffaloProjected winner
60%Win probability
Buffalo by 3.5Projected margin

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Massachusetts run game

CLEAR EDGE
Massachusetts offenseBuffalo defense

Massachusetts gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Buffalo allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Buffalo.

Rushing Success Rate · 33.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 38.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

Buffalo explosive plays

CLEAR EDGE
Buffalo offenseMassachusetts defense

Buffalo creates big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams, while Massachusetts allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Massachusetts.

Offensive Explosiveness · 1.164Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Worse than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.125Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results

Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed

Massachusetts finishing drives

CLEAR EDGE
Massachusetts offenseBuffalo defense

Massachusetts scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams, while Buffalo allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Buffalo.

Points per scoring opportunity · 2.17 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.07 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Better than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed

Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Massachusetts team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. Buffalo team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Massachusetts position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Buffalo position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET

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