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Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Toledo 71%Eastern Michigan 29%
SharpTake projects Toledo to win.
ToledoProjected winner
71%Win probability
Toledo by 8.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Eastern Michigan disruption vs Toledo
CLEAR EDGE
Toledo disruption allowedEastern Michigan disruption created
Toledo avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams, while Eastern Michigan creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Toledo.
Havoc Rate allowed · 12.7%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 10.9%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Eastern Michigan staying on schedule
EDGE
Eastern Michigan offenseToledo defense
Eastern Michigan gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Toledo allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Toledo.
Offensive Success Rate · 43.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 33.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Toledo pass game
EDGE
Toledo offenseEastern Michigan defense
Toledo gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Eastern Michigan allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Toledo.
Passing Success Rate · 46.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 45.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Toledo position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Eastern Michigan position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET