SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 8

AkronatKent State

Sat, Oct. 24 · 1:00 PM ET · Dix Stadium

Akron20
Kent State35
CALLED

SharpTake projected Kent State at 54%. Kent State won.

ProjectedKent State by 1.5
ActualKent State by 15
Difference13.5 pts
Market spreadKent State -3
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Akron +3

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects Kent State to win.

Kent StateProjected winner
54%Win probability
Kent State by 1.5Projected margin

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Kent State staying on schedule

EDGE
Kent State offenseAkron defense

Kent State gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Akron allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Akron.

Offensive Success Rate · 34.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 40.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Kent State run game

EDGE
Kent State offenseAkron defense

Kent State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Akron allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Akron.

Rushing Success Rate · 33.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 42.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

Kent State explosive plays

EDGE
Kent State offenseAkron defense

Kent State creates big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams, while Akron allows big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Kent State.

Offensive Explosiveness · 1.334Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Better than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.312Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Worse than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Akron team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. Kent State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Akron position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Kent State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET

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