SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 8

Bowling GreenatBuffalo

Sat, Oct. 24 · 3:30 PM ET · UB Stadium

Bowling Green24
Buffalo31
CALLED

SharpTake projected Buffalo at 65%. Buffalo won.

ProjectedBuffalo by 6.0
ActualBuffalo by 7
Difference1.0 pts
Market spreadBuffalo -3
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Buffalo -3

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects Buffalo to win.

BuffaloProjected winner
65%Win probability
Buffalo by 6.0Projected margin

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Bowling Green run game

CLEAR EDGE
Bowling Green offenseBuffalo defense

Bowling Green gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Buffalo allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Buffalo.

Rushing Success Rate · 37.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 38.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

Bowling Green staying on schedule

EDGE
Bowling Green offenseBuffalo defense

Bowling Green gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Buffalo allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Buffalo.

Offensive Success Rate · 36.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 38.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Bowling Green pass game

EDGE
Bowling Green offenseBuffalo defense

Bowling Green gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Buffalo allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Buffalo.

Passing Success Rate · 35.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 39.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Bowling Green team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. Buffalo team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Bowling Green position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Buffalo position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET

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