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Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Eastern Michigan 18%Ohio 82%
SharpTake projects Ohio to win.
OhioProjected winner
82%Win probability
Ohio by 14.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Eastern Michigan disruption vs Ohio
CLEAR EDGE
Ohio disruption allowedEastern Michigan disruption created
Ohio avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams, while Eastern Michigan creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Ohio.
Havoc Rate allowed · 12.3%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 10.9%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Ohio pass game
EDGE
Ohio offenseEastern Michigan defense
Ohio gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Eastern Michigan allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Ohio.
Passing Success Rate · 45.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 45.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Eastern Michigan scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle, while Ohio allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Ohio.
Points per scoring opportunity · 3.95 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 2.83 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Eastern Michigan position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Ohio position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET