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Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Western Michigan 37%Toledo 63%
SharpTake projects Toledo to win.
ToledoProjected winner
63%Win probability
Toledo by 5.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Western Michigan explosive plays
CLEAR EDGE
Western Michigan offenseToledo defense
Western Michigan creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Toledo allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Toledo.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.039Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.129Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Western Michigan pass game
CLEAR EDGE
Western Michigan offenseToledo defense
Western Michigan gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Toledo allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Toledo.
Passing Success Rate · 37.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 28.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Western Michigan scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line less often than most FBS teams, while Toledo allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Toledo.
Points per scoring opportunity · 3.35 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Worse than most FBS teams
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 2.45 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Western Michigan position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Toledo position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET