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SharpTake projected Miami (OH) at 57%. Miami (OH) won.
ProjectedMiami (OH) by 2.5
ActualMiami (OH) by 1
Difference1.5 pts
Market spreadMiami (OH) -3.75
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Central Michigan +3.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Miami (OH) 57%Central Michigan 43%
SharpTake projects Miami (OH) to win.
Miami (OH)Projected winner
57%Win probability
Miami (OH) by 2.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Central Michigan run game
EDGE
Central Michigan offenseMiami (OH) defense
Central Michigan gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Miami (OH) allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Miami (OH).
Rushing Success Rate · 39.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 38.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Miami (OH) scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line less often than most FBS teams, while Central Michigan allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Central Michigan.
Points per scoring opportunity · 3.34 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Worse than most FBS teams
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.14 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Staying on schedule
NO EDGE
Miami (OH) offenseCentral Michigan defense
Miami (OH) gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Central Michigan allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 39.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 40.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Miami (OH) position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Central Michigan position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET