Overall team quality
Strong Miami (OH) advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
Bowling GreenatMiami (OH)
Bowling Green24
Miami (OH)20
MISSED
SharpTake projected Miami (OH) at 90%. Bowling Green won.
ProjectedMiami (OH) by 20.0
ActualBowling Green by 4
Difference24.0 pts
Market spreadMiami (OH) -11.25
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Miami (OH) -11.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Bowling Green 10%Miami (OH) 90%
SharpTake projects Miami (OH) to win.
Miami (OH)Projected winner
90%Win probability
Miami (OH) by 20.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Miami (OH)
Miami (OH)'s overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Miami (OH). Miami (OH) also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and recent scoring performance, while Bowling Green's current season's results pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Miami (OH) advantage
Current season's results
Bowling Green offset
Recent scoring performance
Miami (OH) advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Bowling Green run game
CLEAR EDGEBowling Green offenseMiami (OH) defense
Bowling Green gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Miami (OH) allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Miami (OH).
Rushing Success Rate · 37.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 38.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Bowling Green staying on schedule
EDGEBowling Green offenseMiami (OH) defense
Bowling Green gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Miami (OH) allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Miami (OH).
Offensive Success Rate · 36.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 39.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Bowling Green pass game
EDGEBowling Green offenseMiami (OH) defense
Bowling Green gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Miami (OH) allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Miami (OH).
Passing Success Rate · 35.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 40.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Bowling Green team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Miami (OH) team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.