SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 7

AkronatMiami (OH)

Sat, Oct. 17 · 3:30 PM ET · Yager Stadium

Akron14
Miami (OH)34
CALLED

SharpTake projected Miami (OH) at 79%. Miami (OH) won.

ProjectedMiami (OH) by 12.5
ActualMiami (OH) by 20
Difference7.5 pts
Market spreadMiami (OH) -9.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Miami (OH) -9.5

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects Miami (OH) to win.

Miami (OH)Projected winner
79%Win probability
Miami (OH) by 12.5Projected margin

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Miami (OH) disruption vs Akron

EDGE
Akron disruption allowedMiami (OH) disruption created

Akron avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams, while Miami (OH) creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Miami (OH).

Havoc Rate allowed · 17.9%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 17.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created

Staying on schedule

NO EDGE
Miami (OH) offenseAkron defense

Miami (OH) gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Akron allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.

Offensive Success Rate · 39.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 40.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Run game

NO EDGE
Akron offenseMiami (OH) defense

Akron gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Miami (OH) allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.

Rushing Success Rate · 42.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 38.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Akron team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. Miami (OH) team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Akron position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Miami (OH) position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET

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