Last season's results
Baylor advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 3
Louisiana TechatBaylor
Louisiana Tech19
Baylor36
CALLED
SharpTake projected Baylor at 70%. Baylor won.
ProjectedBaylor by 8.5
ActualBaylor by 17
Difference8.5 pts
Market spreadBaylor -19.75
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Louisiana Tech +19.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Louisiana Tech 30%Baylor 70%
SharpTake projects Baylor to win.
BaylorProjected winner
70%Win probability
Baylor by 8.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Baylor
Baylor's record from last season is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Baylor. Baylor also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and running-game efficiency.
Down-to-down efficiency
Slight Baylor advantage
Running-game efficiency
Slight Baylor advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Baylor disruption vs Louisiana Tech
EDGELouisiana Tech disruption allowedBaylor disruption created
Louisiana Tech avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while Baylor creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Louisiana Tech.
Havoc Rate allowed · 14.7%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 12.5%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Staying on schedule
NO EDGEBaylor offenseLouisiana Tech defense
Baylor gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Louisiana Tech allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 45.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 37.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Run game
NO EDGEBaylor offenseLouisiana Tech defense
Baylor gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Louisiana Tech allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 46.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 38.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Louisiana Tech team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Baylor team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.