Overall team quality
Strong Army advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
ArmyatLouisiana Tech
Army29
Louisiana Tech31
MISSED
SharpTake projected Army at 58%. Louisiana Tech won.
ProjectedArmy by 3.5
ActualLouisiana Tech by 2
Difference5.5 pts
Market spreadLouisiana Tech -0.25
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Army +0.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Army 58%Louisiana Tech 42%
SharpTake projects Army to win.
ArmyProjected winner
58%Win probability
Army by 3.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Army
Army's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Army. Army also has the edge in current season's scoring performance and recent scoring performance, while Louisiana Tech's current season's results pushes the other way.
Current season's results
Louisiana Tech offset
Current season's scoring performance
Slight Army advantage
Recent scoring performance
Slight Army advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Army pass game
EDGEArmy offenseLouisiana Tech defense
Army gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Louisiana Tech allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Louisiana Tech.
Passing Success Rate · 38.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 36.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Louisiana Tech explosive plays
EDGELouisiana Tech offenseArmy defense
Louisiana Tech creates big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle, while Army allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Army.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.227Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Near the FBS middle
Explosiveness allowed · 1.109Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Army disruption vs Louisiana Tech
EDGELouisiana Tech disruption allowedArmy disruption created
Louisiana Tech avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while Army creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Louisiana Tech.
Havoc Rate allowed · 14.7%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 12.7%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Army team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Louisiana Tech team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.