Last season's results
App State advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
Old DominionatApp State
Old Dominion10
App State3
MISSED
SharpTake projected App State at 61%. Old Dominion won.
ProjectedApp State by 3.5
ActualOld Dominion by 7
Difference10.5 pts
Market spreadApp State -10
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Old Dominion +10
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Old Dominion 39%App State 61%
SharpTake projects App State to win.
App StateProjected winner
61%Win probability
App State by 3.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans App State
App State's record from last season is the biggest reason SharpTake favors App State. App State also has the edge in current season's scoring performance, while Old Dominion's current season's results pushes the other way.
Current season's results
Old Dominion offset
Current season's scoring performance
App State advantage
Overall team quality
Old Dominion offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
App State explosive plays
CLEAR EDGEApp State offenseOld Dominion defense
App State creates big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams, while Old Dominion allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Old Dominion.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.188Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Worse than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.076Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Old Dominion staying on schedule
EDGEOld Dominion offenseApp State defense
Old Dominion gains enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while App State allows enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Old Dominion.
Offensive Success Rate · 45.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 45.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Old Dominion run game
EDGEOld Dominion offenseApp State defense
Old Dominion gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while App State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Old Dominion.
Rushing Success Rate · 47.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 45.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Old Dominion team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
App State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.