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SharpTake projected Coastal Carolina at 54%. App State won.
ProjectedCoastal Carolina by 1.5
ActualApp State by 3
Difference4.5 pts
Market spreadApp State -1.25
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Coastal Carolina +1.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
App State 46%Coastal Carolina 54%
SharpTake projects Coastal Carolina to win.
Coastal CarolinaProjected winner
54%Win probability
Coastal Carolina by 1.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Staying on schedule
NO EDGE
Coastal Carolina offenseApp State defense
Coastal Carolina gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while App State allows enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 36.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 45.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Run game
NO EDGE
Coastal Carolina offenseApp State defense
Coastal Carolina gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while App State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 40.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 45.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Coastal Carolina gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while App State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Passing Success Rate · 31.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 45.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
App State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Coastal Carolina position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 16, 2026 · 1:47 AM ET