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SharpTake projected James Madison at 88%. App State won.
ProjectedJames Madison by 18.5
ActualApp State by 3
Difference21.5 pts
Market spreadJames Madison -12.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: James Madison -12.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
James Madison 88%App State 12%
SharpTake projects James Madison to win.
James MadisonProjected winner
88%Win probability
James Madison by 18.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
App State staying on schedule
EDGE
App State offenseJames Madison defense
App State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while James Madison allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors James Madison.
Offensive Success Rate · 40.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 30.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
James Madison run game
EDGE
James Madison offenseApp State defense
James Madison gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while App State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors James Madison.
Rushing Success Rate · 48.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 45.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
App State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while James Madison allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors James Madison.
Passing Success Rate · 39.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 29.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
James Madison position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.App State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 22, 2026 · 2:03 AM ET