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Sat, Oct. 31 · 6:30 PM ET · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
App State 35%Georgia Southern 65%
SharpTake projects Georgia Southern to win.
Georgia SouthernProjected winner
65%Win probability
Georgia Southern by 5.5Projected margin
SharpTakeGeorgia Southern by 5.5
Market SpreadGeorgia Southern -5.5
SharpTake matches the market.
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
App State staying on schedule
EDGE
App State offenseGeorgia Southern defense
App State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Georgia Southern allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors App State.
Offensive Success Rate · 40.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 48.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
App State run game
EDGE
App State offenseGeorgia Southern defense
App State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Georgia Southern allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors App State.
Rushing Success Rate · 43.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 51.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
App State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Georgia Southern allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors App State.
Passing Success Rate · 39.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 47.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
App State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Georgia Southern position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET