Last season's results
Arkansas State advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
Kennesaw StateatArkansas State
Kennesaw State14
Arkansas State17
CALLED
SharpTake projected Arkansas State at 62%. Arkansas State won.
ProjectedArkansas State by 5.5
ActualArkansas State by 3
Difference2.5 pts
Market spreadArkansas State -6.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Kennesaw State +6.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Kennesaw State 38%Arkansas State 62%
SharpTake projects Arkansas State to win.
Arkansas StateProjected winner
62%Win probability
Arkansas State by 5.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Arkansas State
Arkansas State's record from last season is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Arkansas State. Arkansas State also has the edge in overall quality, while Kennesaw State's big-play ability pushes the other way.
Big-play ability
Kennesaw State offset
Overall team quality
Slight Arkansas State advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Arkansas State explosive plays
EDGEArkansas State offenseKennesaw State defense
Arkansas State creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Kennesaw State allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Kennesaw State.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.137Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.217Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Kennesaw State finishing drives
EDGEKennesaw State offenseArkansas State defense
Kennesaw State scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams, while Arkansas State allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Arkansas State.
Points per scoring opportunity · 2.95 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.90 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Run game
NO EDGEArkansas State offenseKennesaw State defense
Arkansas State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Kennesaw State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 39.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 43.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Kennesaw State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Arkansas State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.