Overall team quality
Louisiana advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
Arkansas StateatLouisiana
Arkansas State20
Louisiana23
CALLED
SharpTake projected Louisiana at 63%. Louisiana won.
ProjectedLouisiana by 5.5
ActualLouisiana by 3
Difference2.5 pts
Market spreadLouisiana -5.75
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Arkansas State +5.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Arkansas State 37%Louisiana 63%
SharpTake projects Louisiana to win.
LouisianaProjected winner
63%Win probability
Louisiana by 5.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Louisiana
Louisiana's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Louisiana. Louisiana also has the edge in record from last season, while Arkansas State's current season's results pushes the other way.
Current season's results
Arkansas State offset
Down-to-down efficiency
Arkansas State offset
Last season's results
Slight Louisiana advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Arkansas State explosive plays
CLEAR EDGEArkansas State offenseLouisiana defense
Arkansas State creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Louisiana allows big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Louisiana.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.137Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.161Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Arkansas State staying on schedule
EDGEArkansas State offenseLouisiana defense
Arkansas State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Louisiana allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Arkansas State.
Offensive Success Rate · 41.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 46.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Run game
NO EDGEArkansas State offenseLouisiana defense
Arkansas State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Louisiana allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 39.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 48.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Arkansas State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Louisiana team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.