Last season's results
South Alabama offset
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
South AlabamaatArkansas State
South Alabama56
Arkansas State49
MISSED
SharpTake projected Arkansas State at 57%. South Alabama won.
ProjectedArkansas State by 3.0
ActualSouth Alabama by 7
Difference10.0 pts
Market spreadArkansas State -3
Vs spreadNO EDGESharpTake Pick: No edge
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
South Alabama 43%Arkansas State 57%
SharpTake projects Arkansas State to win.
Arkansas StateProjected winner
57%Win probability
Arkansas State by 3.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Arkansas State
Arkansas State's current season's results is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Arkansas State. Arkansas State also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while South Alabama's record from last season pushes the other way.
Overall team quality
South Alabama offset
Current season's results
Slight Arkansas State advantage
Down-to-down efficiency
Slight Arkansas State advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Arkansas State explosive plays
EDGEArkansas State offenseSouth Alabama defense
Arkansas State creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while South Alabama allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors South Alabama.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.137Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.259Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Pass game
NO EDGESouth Alabama offenseArkansas State defense
South Alabama gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Arkansas State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Passing Success Rate · 40.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 44.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Disruption
NO EDGESouth Alabama disruption allowedArkansas State disruption created
South Alabama avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams, while Arkansas State creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Havoc Rate allowed · 13.0%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 15.5%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
South Alabama team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Arkansas State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.