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SharpTake projected Arkansas State at 54%. Arkansas State won.
ProjectedArkansas State by 1.5
ActualArkansas State by 10
Difference8.5 pts
Market spreadArkansas State -6.25
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Southern Miss +6.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Arkansas State 54%Southern Miss 46%
SharpTake projects Arkansas State to win.
Arkansas StateProjected winner
54%Win probability
Arkansas State by 1.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Arkansas State explosive plays
EDGE
Arkansas State offenseSouthern Miss defense
Arkansas State creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Southern Miss allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Southern Miss.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.137Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.215Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Southern Miss disruption vs Arkansas State
EDGE
Arkansas State disruption allowedSouthern Miss disruption created
Arkansas State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams, while Southern Miss creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Southern Miss.
Havoc Rate allowed · 17.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 17.4%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Staying on schedule
NO EDGE
Southern Miss offenseArkansas State defense
Southern Miss gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Arkansas State allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 39.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 43.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Arkansas State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Southern Miss position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET