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Sat, Oct. 24 · 7:00 PM ET · Centennial Bank Stadium
Georgia State32
Arkansas State38
MISSED
SharpTake projected Georgia State at 55%. Arkansas State won.
ProjectedGeorgia State by 1.5
ActualArkansas State by 6
Difference7.5 pts
Market spreadGeorgia State -2.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Arkansas State +2.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Georgia State 55%Arkansas State 45%
SharpTake projects Georgia State to win.
Georgia StateProjected winner
55%Win probability
Georgia State by 1.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Arkansas State staying on schedule
EDGE
Arkansas State offenseGeorgia State defense
Arkansas State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Georgia State allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Arkansas State.
Offensive Success Rate · 41.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 46.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Arkansas State pass game
EDGE
Arkansas State offenseGeorgia State defense
Arkansas State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Georgia State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Arkansas State.
Passing Success Rate · 44.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 46.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Arkansas State creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Georgia State allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Georgia State.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.137Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.260Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Georgia State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Arkansas State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET