Current season's results
Coastal Carolina advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
LibertyatCoastal Carolina
Liberty34
Coastal Carolina17
MISSED
SharpTake projected Coastal Carolina at 56%. Liberty won.
ProjectedCoastal Carolina by 3.5
ActualLiberty by 17
Difference20.5 pts
Market spreadLiberty -2.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Coastal Carolina +2.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Liberty 44%Coastal Carolina 56%
SharpTake projects Coastal Carolina to win.
Coastal CarolinaProjected winner
56%Win probability
Coastal Carolina by 3.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Coastal Carolina
Coastal Carolina's current season's results is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Coastal Carolina. Liberty's down-to-down efficiency pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Liberty offset
Overall team quality
Liberty offset
Last season's results
Liberty offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Coastal Carolina staying on schedule
EDGECoastal Carolina offenseLiberty defense
Coastal Carolina gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Liberty allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Liberty.
Offensive Success Rate · 36.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 41.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Coastal Carolina pass game
EDGECoastal Carolina offenseLiberty defense
Coastal Carolina gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Liberty allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Liberty.
Passing Success Rate · 31.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 38.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Run game
NO EDGELiberty offenseCoastal Carolina defense
Liberty gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Coastal Carolina allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 46.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 46.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Liberty team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Coastal Carolina team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.