Overall team quality
Georgia Southern offset
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
Georgia SouthernatCoastal Carolina
Georgia Southern31
Coastal Carolina24
MISSED
SharpTake projected Coastal Carolina at 54%. Georgia Southern won.
ProjectedCoastal Carolina by 1.5
ActualGeorgia Southern by 7
Difference8.5 pts
Market spreadGeorgia Southern -2.25
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Coastal Carolina +2.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Georgia Southern 46%Coastal Carolina 54%
SharpTake projects Coastal Carolina to win.
Coastal CarolinaProjected winner
54%Win probability
Coastal Carolina by 1.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Coastal Carolina
Coastal Carolina's big-play ability is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Coastal Carolina. Coastal Carolina also has the edge in recent scoring performance, while Georgia Southern's overall quality pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Georgia Southern offset
Big-play ability
Coastal Carolina advantage
Recent scoring performance
Slight Coastal Carolina advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Coastal Carolina run game
EDGECoastal Carolina offenseGeorgia Southern defense
Coastal Carolina gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Georgia Southern allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Coastal Carolina.
Rushing Success Rate · 40.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 51.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Staying on schedule
NO EDGEGeorgia Southern offenseCoastal Carolina defense
Georgia Southern gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Coastal Carolina allows enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 44.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 44.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Disruption
NO EDGECoastal Carolina disruption allowedGeorgia Southern disruption created
Coastal Carolina avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams, while Georgia Southern creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Havoc Rate allowed · 18.5%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 15.0%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Georgia Southern team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Coastal Carolina team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.