Overall team quality
Strong Marshall advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
Coastal CarolinaatMarshall
Coastal Carolina27
Marshall21
MISSED
SharpTake projected Marshall at 69%. Coastal Carolina won.
ProjectedMarshall by 7.0
ActualCoastal Carolina by 6
Difference13.0 pts
Market spreadMarshall -4.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Marshall -4.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Coastal Carolina 31%Marshall 69%
SharpTake projects Marshall to win.
MarshallProjected winner
69%Win probability
Marshall by 7.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Marshall
Marshall's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Marshall. Marshall also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while Coastal Carolina's current season's results pushes the other way.
Current season's results
Coastal Carolina offset
Big-play ability
Coastal Carolina offset
Down-to-down efficiency
Marshall advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Coastal Carolina staying on schedule
EDGECoastal Carolina offenseMarshall defense
Coastal Carolina gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Marshall allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Marshall.
Offensive Success Rate · 36.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 38.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Coastal Carolina run game
EDGECoastal Carolina offenseMarshall defense
Coastal Carolina gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Marshall allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Marshall.
Rushing Success Rate · 40.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 36.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Coastal Carolina pass game
EDGECoastal Carolina offenseMarshall defense
Coastal Carolina gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Marshall allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Marshall.
Passing Success Rate · 31.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 42.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Coastal Carolina team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Marshall team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.