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These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Coastal Carolina run game
EDGE
Coastal Carolina offenseGeorgia State defense
Coastal Carolina gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Georgia State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Coastal Carolina.
Rushing Success Rate · 40.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 46.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Coastal Carolina scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle, while Georgia State allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Coastal Carolina.
Points per scoring opportunity · 3.80 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 4.45 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Staying on schedule
NO EDGE
Georgia State offenseCoastal Carolina defense
Georgia State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Coastal Carolina allows enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 40.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 44.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Coastal Carolina position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Georgia State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET