Overall team quality
Strong James Madison advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
James MadisonatGeorgia Southern
James Madison27
Georgia Southern24
CALLED
SharpTake projected James Madison at 86%. James Madison won.
ProjectedJames Madison by 17.0
ActualJames Madison by 3
Difference14.0 pts
Market spreadJames Madison -7.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: James Madison -7.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
James Madison 86%Georgia Southern 14%
SharpTake projects James Madison to win.
James MadisonProjected winner
86%Win probability
James Madison by 17.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans James Madison
James Madison's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors James Madison. James Madison also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while Georgia Southern's current season's results pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Strong James Madison advantage
Current season's results
Georgia Southern offset
Last season's results
Georgia Southern offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
James Madison run game
CLEAR EDGEJames Madison offenseGeorgia Southern defense
James Madison gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Georgia Southern allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors James Madison.
Rushing Success Rate · 48.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 51.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
James Madison staying on schedule
EDGEJames Madison offenseGeorgia Southern defense
James Madison gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Georgia Southern allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors James Madison.
Offensive Success Rate · 45.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 48.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
James Madison pass game
EDGEJames Madison offenseGeorgia Southern defense
James Madison gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Georgia Southern allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors James Madison.
Passing Success Rate · 41.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 47.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
James Madison team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Georgia Southern team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.