SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 7

Georgia SouthernatOld Dominion

Thu, Oct. 15 · 7:30 PM ET · S.B. Ballard Stadium

Georgia Southern23
Old Dominion15
CALLED

SharpTake projected Georgia Southern at 56%. Georgia Southern won.

ProjectedGeorgia Southern by 2.0
ActualGeorgia Southern by 8
Difference6.0 pts
Market spreadGeorgia Southern -3
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Old Dominion +3

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects Georgia Southern to win.

Georgia SouthernProjected winner
56%Win probability
Georgia Southern by 2.0Projected margin

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Old Dominion staying on schedule

CLEAR EDGE
Old Dominion offenseGeorgia Southern defense

Old Dominion gains enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Georgia Southern allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Old Dominion.

Offensive Success Rate · 45.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 48.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Old Dominion run game

CLEAR EDGE
Old Dominion offenseGeorgia Southern defense

Old Dominion gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Georgia Southern allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Old Dominion.

Rushing Success Rate · 47.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 51.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

Old Dominion pass game

EDGE
Old Dominion offenseGeorgia Southern defense

Old Dominion gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Georgia Southern allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Old Dominion.

Passing Success Rate · 42.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 47.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Georgia Southern team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. Old Dominion team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Georgia Southern position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Old Dominion position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 15, 2026 · 1:50 AM ET

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