Overall team quality
Old Dominion offset
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
Old DominionatGeorgia State
Old Dominion10
Georgia State42
CALLED
SharpTake projected Georgia State at 58%. Georgia State won.
ProjectedGeorgia State by 2.0
ActualGeorgia State by 32
Difference30.0 pts
Market spreadGeorgia State -2.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Old Dominion +2.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Old Dominion 42%Georgia State 58%
SharpTake projects Georgia State to win.
Georgia StateProjected winner
58%Win probability
Georgia State by 2.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Georgia State
Georgia State's record from last season is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Georgia State. Georgia State also has the edge in current season's scoring performance, while Old Dominion's overall quality pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Strong Georgia State advantage
Current season's results
Old Dominion offset
Current season's scoring performance
Georgia State advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Old Dominion staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGEOld Dominion offenseGeorgia State defense
Old Dominion gains enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Georgia State allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Old Dominion.
Offensive Success Rate · 45.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 46.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Old Dominion run game
CLEAR EDGEOld Dominion offenseGeorgia State defense
Old Dominion gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Georgia State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Old Dominion.
Rushing Success Rate · 47.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 46.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Old Dominion pass game
EDGEOld Dominion offenseGeorgia State defense
Old Dominion gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Georgia State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Old Dominion.
Passing Success Rate · 42.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 46.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Old Dominion team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Georgia State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.