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SharpTake projected James Madison at 84%. James Madison won.
ProjectedJames Madison by 15.5
ActualJames Madison by 27
Difference11.5 pts
Market spreadJames Madison -8.25
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: James Madison -8.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Georgia State 16%James Madison 84%
SharpTake projects James Madison to win.
James MadisonProjected winner
84%Win probability
James Madison by 15.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
James Madison run game
CLEAR EDGE
James Madison offenseGeorgia State defense
James Madison gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Georgia State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors James Madison.
Rushing Success Rate · 48.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 46.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
James Madison gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Georgia State allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors James Madison.
Offensive Success Rate · 45.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 46.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
James Madison pass game
EDGE
James Madison offenseGeorgia State defense
James Madison gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Georgia State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors James Madison.
Passing Success Rate · 41.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 46.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Georgia State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.James Madison position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET