Overall team quality
Strong James Madison advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
James MadisonatOld Dominion
James Madison46
Old Dominion20
CALLED
SharpTake projected James Madison at 76%. James Madison won.
ProjectedJames Madison by 10.5
ActualJames Madison by 26
Difference15.5 pts
Market spreadJames Madison -7
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: James Madison -7
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
James Madison 76%Old Dominion 24%
SharpTake projects James Madison to win.
James MadisonProjected winner
76%Win probability
James Madison by 10.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans James Madison
James Madison's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors James Madison. James Madison also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's scoring performance, while Old Dominion's current season's results pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
James Madison advantage
Current season's results
Old Dominion offset
Current season's scoring performance
James Madison advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Old Dominion pass game
EDGEOld Dominion offenseJames Madison defense
Old Dominion gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while James Madison allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors James Madison.
Passing Success Rate · 42.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 29.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Old Dominion explosive plays
EDGEOld Dominion offenseJames Madison defense
Old Dominion creates big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle, while James Madison allows big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Old Dominion.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.255Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Near the FBS middle
Explosiveness allowed · 1.418Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
James Madison disruption vs Old Dominion
EDGEOld Dominion disruption allowedJames Madison disruption created
Old Dominion avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while James Madison creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors James Madison.
Havoc Rate allowed · 13.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 19.9%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
James Madison team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Old Dominion team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.