Overall team quality
Strong James Madison advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
MarshallatJames Madison
Marshall17
James Madison45
CALLED
SharpTake projected James Madison at 94%. James Madison won.
ProjectedJames Madison by 26.0
ActualJames Madison by 28
Difference2.0 pts
Market spreadJames Madison -16.75
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: James Madison -16.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Marshall 6%James Madison 94%
SharpTake projects James Madison to win.
James MadisonProjected winner
94%Win probability
James Madison by 26.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans James Madison
James Madison's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors James Madison. James Madison also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's scoring performance, while Marshall's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Strong James Madison advantage
Last season's results
Marshall offset
Current season's scoring performance
James Madison advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Marshall staying on schedule
EDGEMarshall offenseJames Madison defense
Marshall gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while James Madison allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors James Madison.
Offensive Success Rate · 44.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 30.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Marshall run game
EDGEMarshall offenseJames Madison defense
Marshall gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while James Madison allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors James Madison.
Rushing Success Rate · 42.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 31.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
James Madison explosive plays
EDGEJames Madison offenseMarshall defense
James Madison creates big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle, while Marshall allows big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors James Madison.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.286Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Near the FBS middle
Explosiveness allowed · 1.382Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Marshall team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
James Madison team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.