SharpTake

Game forecast · REGULAR week 9

TroyatJames Madison

Thu, Oct. 29 · 7:30 PM ET · Bridgeforth Stadium

SharpTake projects James Madison to win.

James MadisonProjected winner
93%Win probability
James Madison by 24.5Projected margin
SharpTakeJames Madison by 24.5
Market SpreadJames Madison -21

SharpTake is 3.5 points higher on James Madison.

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

James Madison disruption vs Troy

CLEAR EDGE
Troy disruption allowedJames Madison disruption created

Troy avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while James Madison creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors James Madison.

Havoc Rate allowed · 19.6%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 19.9%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results

Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created

Troy staying on schedule

CLEAR EDGE
Troy offenseJames Madison defense

Troy gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while James Madison allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors James Madison.

Offensive Success Rate · 37.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 30.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Troy run game

CLEAR EDGE
Troy offenseJames Madison defense

Troy gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while James Madison allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors James Madison.

Rushing Success Rate · 38.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 31.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Troy team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. James Madison team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Troy position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
James Madison position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET

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