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SharpTake projected Louisiana at 66%. Louisiana won.
ProjectedLouisiana by 6.5
ActualLouisiana by 27
Difference20.5 pts
Market spreadLouisiana -3
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Louisiana -3
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Troy 34%Louisiana 66%
SharpTake projects Louisiana to win.
LouisianaProjected winner
66%Win probability
Louisiana by 6.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Louisiana pass game
EDGE
Louisiana offenseTroy defense
Louisiana gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Troy allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Troy.
Passing Success Rate · 34.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 38.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Troy gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Louisiana allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 37.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 46.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Run game
NO EDGE
Troy offenseLouisiana defense
Troy gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Louisiana allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 38.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 48.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Troy position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Louisiana position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET