Control basic Google Analytics for this browser. Analytics is on by default for eligible U.S. visits; elsewhere, it needs your permission. Sports questions are not sent to Google Analytics. Privacy policy
SharpTake projected Louisiana at 80%. Southern Miss won.
ProjectedLouisiana by 13.0
ActualSouthern Miss by 4
Difference17.0 pts
Market spreadLouisiana -10
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Louisiana -10
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Louisiana 80%Southern Miss 20%
SharpTake projects Louisiana to win.
LouisianaProjected winner
80%Win probability
Louisiana by 13.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Louisiana pass game
EDGE
Louisiana offenseSouthern Miss defense
Louisiana gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Southern Miss allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Southern Miss.
Passing Success Rate · 34.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 40.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Southern Miss gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Louisiana allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 39.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 46.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Run game
NO EDGE
Southern Miss offenseLouisiana defense
Southern Miss gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Louisiana allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 39.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 48.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Louisiana position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Southern Miss position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET