Overall team quality
Strong Liberty advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
Sam HoustonatLiberty
Sam Houston3
Liberty35
CALLED
SharpTake projected Liberty at 83%. Liberty won.
ProjectedLiberty by 14.5
ActualLiberty by 32
Difference17.5 pts
Market spreadLiberty -13.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Liberty -13.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Sam Houston 17%Liberty 83%
SharpTake projects Liberty to win.
LibertyProjected winner
83%Win probability
Liberty by 14.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Liberty
Liberty's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Liberty. Liberty also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while Sam Houston's current season's results pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Liberty advantage
Current season's results
Sam Houston offset
Last season's results
Sam Houston offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Sam Houston staying on schedule
EDGESam Houston offenseLiberty defense
Sam Houston gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Liberty allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Liberty.
Offensive Success Rate · 36.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 41.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Sam Houston pass game
EDGESam Houston offenseLiberty defense
Sam Houston gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Liberty allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Liberty.
Passing Success Rate · 34.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 38.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Sam Houston finishing drives
EDGESam Houston offenseLiberty defense
Sam Houston scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams, while Liberty allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Liberty.
Points per scoring opportunity · 2.79 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.55 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Sam Houston team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Liberty team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.