Overall team quality
Strong Marshall advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 3
MarshallatMissouri State
Marshall30
Missouri State24
CALLED
SharpTake projected Marshall at 53%. Marshall won.
ProjectedMarshall by 1.5
ActualMarshall by 6
Difference4.5 pts
Market spreadMarshall -4
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Missouri State +4
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Marshall 53%Missouri State 47%
SharpTake projects Marshall to win.
MarshallProjected winner
53%Win probability
Marshall by 1.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Marshall
Marshall's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Marshall. Marshall also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and running-game efficiency, while Missouri State's big-play ability pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Marshall advantage
Big-play ability
Missouri State offset
Running-game efficiency
Slight Marshall advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Missouri State explosive plays
CLEAR EDGEMissouri State offenseMarshall defense
Missouri State creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while Marshall allows big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Missouri State.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.489Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.382Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Missouri State run game
CLEAR EDGEMissouri State offenseMarshall defense
Missouri State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Marshall allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Marshall.
Rushing Success Rate · 37.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 36.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Marshall pass game
EDGEMarshall offenseMissouri State defense
Marshall gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Missouri State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Marshall.
Passing Success Rate · 47.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 43.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Marshall team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Missouri State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.