Overall team quality
Strong Jacksonville State advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
Middle TennesseeatJacksonville State
Middle Tennessee13
Jacksonville State23
CALLED
SharpTake projected Jacksonville State at 73%. Jacksonville State won.
ProjectedJacksonville State by 10.0
ActualJacksonville State by 10
Difference0.0 pts
Market spreadJacksonville State -7
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Jacksonville State -7
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Middle Tennessee 27%Jacksonville State 73%
SharpTake projects Jacksonville State to win.
Jacksonville StateProjected winner
73%Win probability
Jacksonville State by 10.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Jacksonville State. Jacksonville State also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's results, while Middle Tennessee's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Middle Tennessee offset
Down-to-down efficiency
Slight Jacksonville State advantage
Current season's results
Slight Jacksonville State advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Jacksonville State pass game
EDGEJacksonville State offenseMiddle Tennessee defense
Jacksonville State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Middle Tennessee allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Jacksonville State.
Passing Success Rate · 39.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 48.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Staying on schedule
NO EDGEJacksonville State offenseMiddle Tennessee defense
Jacksonville State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Middle Tennessee allows enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 43.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 44.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Run game
NO EDGEJacksonville State offenseMiddle Tennessee defense
Jacksonville State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Middle Tennessee allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 47.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 40.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Middle Tennessee team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Jacksonville State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.