Overall team quality
Western Kentucky offset
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
Western KentuckyatNew Mexico State
Western Kentucky13
New Mexico State34
CALLED
SharpTake projected New Mexico State at 52%. New Mexico State won.
ProjectedNew Mexico State by 0.5
ActualNew Mexico State by 21
Difference20.5 pts
Market spreadNew Mexico State -1.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Western Kentucky +1.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Western Kentucky 48%New Mexico State 52%
SharpTake projects New Mexico State to win.
New Mexico StateProjected winner
52%Win probability
New Mexico State by 0.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans New Mexico State
New Mexico State's record from last season is the biggest reason SharpTake favors New Mexico State. New Mexico State also has the edge in big-play ability, while Western Kentucky's overall quality pushes the other way.
Last season's results
New Mexico State advantage
Down-to-down efficiency
Western Kentucky offset
Big-play ability
New Mexico State advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
New Mexico State run game
CLEAR EDGENew Mexico State offenseWestern Kentucky defense
New Mexico State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Western Kentucky allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Western Kentucky.
Rushing Success Rate · 34.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 37.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
New Mexico State finishing drives
CLEAR EDGENew Mexico State offenseWestern Kentucky defense
New Mexico State scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line less often than most FBS teams, while Western Kentucky allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Western Kentucky.
Points per scoring opportunity · 3.21 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Worse than most FBS teams
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 2.72 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
New Mexico State staying on schedule
EDGENew Mexico State offenseWestern Kentucky defense
New Mexico State gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Western Kentucky allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Western Kentucky.
Offensive Success Rate · 37.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 36.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Western Kentucky team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
New Mexico State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.