Overall team quality
Liberty advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
LibertyatDelaware
Liberty30
Delaware14
CALLED
SharpTake projected Liberty at 59%. Liberty won.
ProjectedLiberty by 3.5
ActualLiberty by 16
Difference12.5 pts
Market spreadLiberty -7
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Delaware +7
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Liberty 59%Delaware 41%
SharpTake projects Liberty to win.
LibertyProjected winner
59%Win probability
Liberty by 3.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Liberty
Liberty's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Liberty. Liberty also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and recent scoring performance, while Delaware's current season's results pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Liberty advantage
Recent scoring performance
Liberty advantage
Current season's results
Delaware offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Run game
NO EDGELiberty offenseDelaware defense
Liberty gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Delaware allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 46.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 38.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Pass game
NO EDGELiberty offenseDelaware defense
Liberty gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Delaware allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Passing Success Rate · 40.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 44.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explosive plays
NO EDGELiberty offenseDelaware defense
Liberty creates big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams, while Delaware allows big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.184Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Worse than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.423Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Liberty team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Delaware team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.