Down-to-down efficiency
Western Kentucky advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
Missouri StateatWestern Kentucky
Missouri State13
Western Kentucky34
CALLED
SharpTake projected Western Kentucky at 57%. Western Kentucky won.
ProjectedWestern Kentucky by 2.5
ActualWestern Kentucky by 21
Difference18.5 pts
Market spreadMissouri State -1.75
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Western Kentucky +1.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Missouri State 43%Western Kentucky 57%
SharpTake projects Western Kentucky to win.
Western KentuckyProjected winner
57%Win probability
Western Kentucky by 2.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky's down-to-down efficiency is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky also has the edge in running-game efficiency, while Missouri State's big-play ability pushes the other way.
Big-play ability
Missouri State offset
Last season's results
Missouri State offset
Running-game efficiency
Slight Western Kentucky advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Missouri State explosive plays
CLEAR EDGEMissouri State offenseWestern Kentucky defense
Missouri State creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while Western Kentucky allows big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Missouri State.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.489Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.326Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Missouri State staying on schedule
EDGEMissouri State offenseWestern Kentucky defense
Missouri State gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Western Kentucky allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Western Kentucky.
Offensive Success Rate · 39.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 36.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Missouri State run game
EDGEMissouri State offenseWestern Kentucky defense
Missouri State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Western Kentucky allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Western Kentucky.
Rushing Success Rate · 37.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 37.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Missouri State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Western Kentucky team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.