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SharpTake projected Jacksonville State at 65%. Jacksonville State won.
ProjectedJacksonville State by 5.5
ActualJacksonville State by 3
Difference2.5 pts
Market spreadJacksonville State -3
Vs spreadPUSHSharpTake Pick: Jacksonville State -3
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Florida International 35%Jacksonville State 65%
SharpTake projects Jacksonville State to win.
Jacksonville StateProjected winner
65%Win probability
Jacksonville State by 5.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Jacksonville State run game
EDGE
Jacksonville State offenseFlorida International defense
Jacksonville State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Florida International allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Jacksonville State.
Rushing Success Rate · 47.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 45.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Florida International disruption allowedJacksonville State disruption created
Florida International avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams, while Jacksonville State creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Havoc Rate allowed · 16.9%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 17.0%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Staying on schedule
NO EDGE
Jacksonville State offenseFlorida International defense
Jacksonville State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Florida International allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 43.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 41.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Florida International position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Jacksonville State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 12, 2026 · 3:17 AM ET