Control basic Google Analytics for this browser. Analytics is on by default for eligible U.S. visits; elsewhere, it needs your permission. Sports questions are not sent to Google Analytics. Privacy policy
SharpTake projected Kennesaw State at 64%. Missouri State won.
ProjectedKennesaw State by 5.5
ActualMissouri State by 3
Difference8.5 pts
Market spreadKennesaw State -2.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Kennesaw State -2.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Kennesaw State 64%Missouri State 36%
SharpTake projects Kennesaw State to win.
Kennesaw StateProjected winner
64%Win probability
Kennesaw State by 5.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Missouri State explosive plays
EDGE
Missouri State offenseKennesaw State defense
Missouri State creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while Kennesaw State allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Missouri State.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.489Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.217Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Kennesaw State disruption vs Missouri State
EDGE
Missouri State disruption allowedKennesaw State disruption created
Missouri State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while Kennesaw State creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Kennesaw State.
Havoc Rate allowed · 24.3%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 16.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Kennesaw State finishing drives
EDGE
Kennesaw State offenseMissouri State defense
Kennesaw State scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams, while Missouri State allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Missouri State.
Points per scoring opportunity · 2.95 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.89 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Kennesaw State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Missouri State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 14, 2026 · 2:04 AM ET