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SharpTake projected Florida International at 76%. Middle Tennessee won.
ProjectedFlorida International by 11.0
ActualMiddle Tennessee by 3
Difference14.0 pts
Market spreadFlorida International -10
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Florida International -10
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Middle Tennessee 24%Florida International 76%
SharpTake projects Florida International to win.
Florida InternationalProjected winner
76%Win probability
Florida International by 11.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Florida International pass game
EDGE
Florida International offenseMiddle Tennessee defense
Florida International gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Middle Tennessee allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Florida International.
Passing Success Rate · 42.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 48.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Florida International offenseMiddle Tennessee defense
Florida International gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Middle Tennessee allows enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 40.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 44.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Run game
NO EDGE
Middle Tennessee offenseFlorida International defense
Middle Tennessee gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Florida International allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 44.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 45.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Middle Tennessee position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Florida International position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 18, 2026 · 12:29 PM ET