SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 8

LibertyatKennesaw State

Thu, Oct. 22 · 7:00 PM ET · Fifth Third Stadium

Liberty34
Kennesaw State6
CALLED

SharpTake projected Liberty at 71%. Liberty won.

ProjectedLiberty by 8.5
ActualLiberty by 28
Difference19.5 pts
Market spreadLiberty -9.25
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Kennesaw State +9.25

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects Liberty to win.

LibertyProjected winner
71%Win probability
Liberty by 8.5Projected margin

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Kennesaw State finishing drives

EDGE
Kennesaw State offenseLiberty defense

Kennesaw State scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams, while Liberty allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Liberty.

Points per scoring opportunity · 2.95 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.55 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed

Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.

Explosive plays

NO EDGE
Liberty offenseKennesaw State defense

Liberty creates big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams, while Kennesaw State allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.

Offensive Explosiveness · 1.184Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Worse than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.217Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed

Disruption

NO EDGE
Kennesaw State disruption allowedLiberty disruption created

Kennesaw State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while Liberty creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.

Havoc Rate allowed · 15.2%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 13.2%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Liberty team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. Kennesaw State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Liberty position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Kennesaw State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 22, 2026 · 2:03 AM ET

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