Control basic Google Analytics for this browser. Analytics is on by default for eligible U.S. visits; elsewhere, it needs your permission. Sports questions are not sent to Google Analytics. Privacy policy
Wed, Oct. 28 · 8:00 PM ET · Aggie Memorial Stadium
Jacksonville State 60%New Mexico State 40%
SharpTake projects Jacksonville State to win.
Jacksonville StateProjected winner
60%Win probability
Jacksonville State by 4.0Projected margin
SharpTakeJacksonville State by 4.0
Market SpreadJacksonville State -3
SharpTake is 1.0 points higher on Jacksonville State.
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
New Mexico State run game
EDGE
New Mexico State offenseJacksonville State defense
New Mexico State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Jacksonville State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Jacksonville State.
Rushing Success Rate · 34.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 42.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
New Mexico State disruption allowedJacksonville State disruption created
New Mexico State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while Jacksonville State creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Jacksonville State.
Havoc Rate allowed · 20.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 17.0%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Staying on schedule
NO EDGE
New Mexico State offenseJacksonville State defense
New Mexico State gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Jacksonville State allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 37.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 42.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Jacksonville State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.New Mexico State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET