SharpTake

Game forecast · REGULAR week 9

Kennesaw StateatMiddle Tennessee

Wed, Oct. 28 · 7:00 PM ET · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

SharpTake projects Kennesaw State to win.

Kennesaw StateProjected winner
52%Win probability
Kennesaw State by 1.0Projected margin
SharpTakeKennesaw State by 1.0
Market SpreadMiddle Tennessee -1.25

SharpTake is 2.25 points higher on Kennesaw State.

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Kennesaw State pass game

EDGE
Kennesaw State offenseMiddle Tennessee defense

Kennesaw State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Middle Tennessee allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Kennesaw State.

Passing Success Rate · 40.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 48.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed

Staying on schedule

NO EDGE
Kennesaw State offenseMiddle Tennessee defense

Kennesaw State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Middle Tennessee allows enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.

Offensive Success Rate · 41.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 44.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Explosive plays

NO EDGE
Kennesaw State offenseMiddle Tennessee defense

Kennesaw State creates big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams, while Middle Tennessee allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.

Offensive Explosiveness · 1.323Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Better than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.267Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Kennesaw State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. Middle Tennessee team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Kennesaw State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Middle Tennessee position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET

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