Overall team quality
Strong Florida International advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
New Mexico StateatFlorida International
New Mexico State3
Florida International22
CALLED
SharpTake projected Florida International at 68%. Florida International won.
ProjectedFlorida International by 7.5
ActualFlorida International by 19
Difference11.5 pts
Market spreadFlorida International -7
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Florida International -7
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
New Mexico State 32%Florida International 68%
SharpTake projects Florida International to win.
Florida InternationalProjected winner
68%Win probability
Florida International by 7.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Florida International
Florida International's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Florida International. Florida International also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while New Mexico State's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
New Mexico State offset
Down-to-down efficiency
Slight Florida International advantage
Big-play ability
New Mexico State offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Florida International disruption vs New Mexico State
EDGENew Mexico State disruption allowedFlorida International disruption created
New Mexico State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while Florida International creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Florida International.
Havoc Rate allowed · 20.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 16.4%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Staying on schedule
NO EDGENew Mexico State offenseFlorida International defense
New Mexico State gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Florida International allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 37.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 41.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Run game
NO EDGENew Mexico State offenseFlorida International defense
New Mexico State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Florida International allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 34.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 45.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
New Mexico State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Florida International team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.